The Difference Between Probability and Odds in Sports Betting

May 05 2021 First tag name

Probably wondering why odds are different from probability, well you are not alone A lot of new beginners in sports betting tend to confuse the two but no they are different and the same in one and here is why you need to understand the difference between probability and odds especially if you are eager to get into sports betting.

Probability is the possibility of a certain outcome as a result of an event happening. With probability it's either one thing or the other without any other analysis made in terms of what may affect the possibility of a certain outcome from an event.

Odds are more like the probability of an outcome occurring over the probability of an outcome not occurring.

Odds are what most online bookmakers rely on in addition to analysis of the previous outcome results. And the most used odds format by most online betting sites in Africa are the decimals for example 1.20

With these methods, Online bookies use experienced analysts and algorithm to analyze statistics and come up with odds for the fixtures.

What are Factors that affect the calculation of Odds?

As online bookies are calculating odds for their customers to make decisions on what to place their bets on, here are some of the factors that affect the odds projected by your online bookie

  • Cash flow projections into the market

You may wonder what is a cash flow projection? Well, this is the amount likely to be injected into the market at that period of time by bettors. The cash flow projection helps the online bookies to keep a certain percentage of cash so as not to run out of business in case things go bad with their analysis of the possible outcomes. So they are definitely part of odds and depend on how popular a sport is.

  • The betting margin

All punters need to know that for every bet you place, whether you win it or lose it, the online bookie you are placing your bets with is taking off the commission fee. Unlike betting exchanges, online bookies do charge a commission for every bet placed by you and this commission is what is termed as a betting margin. For example, an odd of 3.0 isn’t actually stated as 3.0 instead it can be stated as 2.8 just to keep the margin on the side of the bookie  

How to Calculate a Betting Margin on Odds?

A betting margin is calculated based on the odds already provided to the punters.

For example, in match fixture Chelsea vs Leicester city and the odds are 1.85 and 3.50 and 3.95 respectively in the context of a 1x2 odds

The betting margin will be (1/1.85 x100) +(1/3.50x100) + (1/3.95x100) = 107% and the betting margin is 7%

You need to understand that the best online betting sites in Africa charge around 5 to 7% and not higher though a lot of physical betting shops charge higher than that die to more taxes levied on them. So as a punter you need to keep looking out for the best odds that you can find and benefit from.

Why do odds keep changing?

It’s very simple because cash flow projections do change too due to how popular a game is among punters.

Now that you can calculate betting margin, that means you can look for some of the best online bookers to give you the best odds out there remember the bigger the odds the lower the betting margin and vice versa. Luckily for you, we created an article on some of the best online betting sites in Africa to help you get started with the best!

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