What Does the Term Expected Bet Value Mean in Sports Betting?

May 05 2021

What does the term expected bet value mean in sports betting?

The expected bet value in sports betting is simply the total number of bet values you are predicted to win over course from your online bookmaker. Most punters never take into consideration the amount of money that they make over time while they bet with a specific online bookmaker.

But the truth is you need to be able to calculate your total losses or profits within a given period of time in order to reflect on your performance with the online bookmaker and if you are actually profiting in the long term.

Expected bet value therefore refers to the total predicted bets that a punter expects to win or lose staked on the same odds overtime on the same sports event. In case you get a negative expected bet value then you have made a loss over time and if you have a positive bet value then you have made a profit over time.

Every bettor should aim to get to know their betting value if you look forward to make profits over a long term.

What is the importance of Expected Bet Value in Sports Betting?

How to calculate Expected bet value in sports betting?

The expected value is calculated by multiplying the (probability of winning x the money you win per bet¬ probability of loss x money you lose per bet

If you stake £25 on a match of Manu Vs Burnley with Manu having odds of 1,20 and Burnley having odds of 2,40. This means that the probability for Manchester to win is 1/1,20 which gives us an 83% implied probability. But the actual probability would be 50% of any outcome to happen.

But this actual probability can easily change according to the punters judgment of the analysis of the games fixture stats which gives you the use of the implied probability that is equally needed to calculate the EV at this point.

The winning is 1.20x25= 30 that MEANS you will receive a return of £5 83% of the time and lose £25 17% of the time.

The EV= 83%X 5¬ 17%X25= ¬0.10 which is a negative EV meaning this bet if place over a long period of time will not be profitable.

Read more on The Difference between Probability and Odds in betting

What is the importance of Calculating Expected Bet Value in Sports Betting?

As we mentioned earlier this is only beneficial to punters who are looking to profit in the long run of betting.

So what happens if you find out the EV is NEGATIVE?, you should abandon the bet and save your money for anther bet, simple as that!

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