MLB Baseball betting strategies

August 04 2021

 It’s always in your favor as a bettor to develop a strategy so as to maximize your wins and minimize your losses just in case you want to bet on baseball for some time now.

 Always Try and Find Value In Every Bet

Finding value in a bet is very important because it determines whether you profit in the long term or not. It’s quite easy to search for value during the regular season due to so many games in the divisions.

How do you calculate whether a bet is valuable or not? 

Value= (decimal odds your assessed probability)– 1 

Let’s get an example of Diamondbacks Vs. Detroit Tigers and it expected for the diamondbacks to defeat the tigers with odds of 1.75 and you have carried your own research and you believe the Diamondbacks have at least a 65% chance of winning according to your estimation

Value =  (1.75 x 0.65 )-1

           = 1.1375 -1

           = 0.1375 the value is greater than 0 meaning it’s a positive sign to go ahead and place your bet

Always Place Priority on the Team’s Skills

Prioritize a player’s skill or a team’s skill because talent almost wins in the long run. You will need to carry out your research on the best pitchers, hitters and key bullpen contributors.

In addition to that don’t jump on to every media circus hype instead lookout for the information that the media and bookies won’t be able to provide you with. So knowing a player’s hit and pitching ability is a bonus to your strategy for baseball betting. You can always check out baseball stats websites for all accurate statistics for better judgment. 

Monitor the injuries report of significant players

This is usually something you should do at the beginning of the season in the month of April. Check out whether they are good to play so you cut yourself some surprises like your favorite pitcher won’t be available due to a bad leg or arm injury.

Always Be On the Lookout for Surprise Turn around For Teams

Teams are more likely to have a comeback in case they bottomed the last season or they also tend to make a dive for the ground when they have heard glorious prior season. A lot of reasons can contribute to this like retiring key players, young players with room for improvement and looking for  a chance to shine, injuries or just short term bad luck.

So do not always bet against one team you believe to lose all the time because circumstances change due to factors mentioned above.

One example is the Dodgers losing to the Red Sox in 2001 was quite surprising since the Red Sox had not been champions in the long run with quite high odds at the time to win the pennant that season against the Dodgers.

Research about the Team’s Strength and Weakness 

Spotting your team’s strengths and weaknesses gives you more clarity on the results expected for example: knowing how they perform on the road, do they score more runs in games, how do their pitchers and fielder perform. Learn to study form guides and statistics.

Also, look out for situations like switching coaches mid-season, amateur players getting the hype, older players gaining on the field.

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